Decision Making by Simulating Fuzzy Cognitive Map Models

In this paper we propose the use of Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) models for decision making through simulations. FCMs create models as collections of concepts and the various causal relations that exist between these concepts. The concepts are represented by nodes and the causal relationships by directed arcs between the nodes. Each arc is accompanied by a weight that defines the type of causal relation between the two nodes. The sign of the weight determines the positive or negative causal relation between the two concepts-nodes. In this paper the decision making capabilities of the FCM models are examined and presented using a model concerning a car industry. The model is examined dynamically through simulations, in order to simulate scenarios proposed by decision makers. Predictions are made by viewing dynamically the consequences of the scenario’s actions. Conclusions are drawn for the use of FCM models for decision making and possible ways are identified, to increase the quality of the constructed FCM model. Key-Words: Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Modeling, Simulation, Decision Making, Artificial Intelligence, Neural Networks